Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 600: Speculator

Just as one wave calms, another rises.

While the Ottoman-Persian conflict remains unresolved, trouble has erupted in East Asia. The Japanese government, which has just begun preliminary social reforms, has shown its fangs to the outside world.

In May 1875, Japanese warships, including the Un'y?, invaded Busan, Korea, staging a show of force. The decaying and incompetent Joseon Dynasty failed to organize an immediate counterattack and instead hoped for intervention from their overlord.

Unfortunately for them, their neighboring overlord was also in decline, embroiled in internal strife and unable to attend to such minor matters, further fueling Japan’s ambitions.

To test the limits of their neighbor, in September, Japanese forces invaded the area around Ganghwa Island. This time, there was no escaping and the Korean army was forced to resist.

After suffering two casualties, the Japanese forces achieved victory in the battle. Under the threat of military force, the Korean government quickly capitulated.

(Note: Approximately 35 Korean soldiers were killed.)

The specifics of the incident were not detailed in the telegrams, and Franz did not bother to investigate further. Such childlike skirmishes, however, still managed to refresh his worldview.

It is worth noting that the Kingdom of Korea is a country with a population of over ten million and a standing army of around 200,000. The fact that it surrendered after losing just a company of troops is astonishing.

This practically signaled to everyone that East Asia held a fat sheep too timid even to kick back, ripe for the picking.

Ambition is always fostered by indulgence. The current Japanese government is merely testing the waters. It is not yet the mid-20th century Showa government that sought to dominate the world.

Austria has entered the Far East too recently and has almost no interests in East Asia, so this news is just a source of amusement for the Austrian government.

However, the situation is different for other European powers. At least neighboring Russia has already been provoked. If it weren’t for the deep-seated conflicts with Prussia, the Russian government might have turned its attention eastward.

In the original timeline, the Russian Bear’s eastward shift was indeed a response to provocation. The West was filled with hard bones that were difficult to chew, while the East, though a bit farther away, was all soft flesh!

Bears eat meat; only dogs gnaw on bones. This choice is easy to make, driven purely by instinct.

Compared to the original timeline, the current international situation has changed dramatically, with overall stability maintained on the European continent.

Britain, France, and Austria are in a tripartite balance of power, while Prussia and Russia are two secondary powers in opposition to each other. Below them are three medium powers: Spain, the Nordic Federation, and the German Federal Empire. This arrangement is precisely what the British have long desired.

Any nation that wishes to disrupt this balance must bear pressure from multiple sides. When power is balanced among various parties, stability naturally follows.

Once the conflicts among Europe’s major colonial empires ease, other independent nations around the world will feel greater pressure, especially countries like the Joseon Dynasty that are viewed as “fat sheep.”

“What do you think about the changes in East Asia? Will this affect the global situation?”

There’s no way around it as almost every colonial empire has a stake in East Asia. Originally, Japan was seen as a fat sheep that everyone had their eyes on, but suddenly everyone realized that this sheep had evolved into a wolf, jumping out to compete for meat.

There are only so many interests to go around. If you take more, I take less. Adding one more player to the mix significantly impacts everyone.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg stated, “Your Majesty, Japan is not a concern. Their small skirmishes are inconsequential. Once they overstep their bounds, the British and French will teach them what the rules are.

Our interests are primarily concentrated in the South Seas, and the Japanese can only loiter around their own doorstep. They have no foothold in the South Seas at all.

Moreover, the unequal treaties signed with various countries are shackles that restrict their development. As long as they remain bound by these shackles, they cannot develop effectively.

Addressing these issues alone will likely take decades. For Japan to truly become strong, they have a long road ahead.

The Meiji Restoration slogan may sound impressive, but aside from training a second-rate military force, I see little else of merit.

Japan’s recent success is filled with chance. If it weren’t for the neighboring Far Eastern Empire being busy with internal strife, they wouldn’t have had any opportunity to assert themselves.”

“Disdain” is a common view in European society towards Japan. In this era, “white supremacy” was still in vogue, and people of color were inherently discriminated against.

Even among whites, there were divisions based on rank: regional discrimination, ethnic discrimination, and national discrimination... For instance, Western Europeans look down on Central Europeans, Central Europeans look down on Eastern Europeans, and Europeans collectively look down on overseas territories.

The reason why the theory of unification spread in the German region is primarily that the German people were considered second-class citizens, and they needed a strong nation.

This was evident in the 19th century in the United States, where German immigrants faced discrimination and, like the Irish, Italians, and Eastern European immigrants, occupied the lower rungs of society.

In the original timeline, this situation persisted until after the unification of Germany improved their status.

Now, the situation is changing more rapidly. With Austria’s resurgence, the international status of the German people is rising as well.

This is also why Austria can maintain its influence in the German region.

It’s one thing not to go abroad, but for capitalists engaged in international trade, not obtaining a nationality from the new Holy Roman Empire would leave them feeling uneasy.

By acquiring imperial nationality and enjoying the benefits that come with being part of a great power, these individuals naturally aligned themselves with Austria.

In this context, even though many of Austria’s actions may seem very conservative to German nationalists and do not fully satisfy their ambitions, they are still recognized as legitimate.

It is no surprise that the Japanese are looked down upon. The Meiji Restoration has only just begun, and their so-called “development” is relative.

For impoverished Japan, progress in any industry was a great achievement, but from Austria’s standpoint, it wasn’t even worth mentioning.

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For impoverished Japan, any progress in any industry is a significant achievement. However, from Austria’s standpoint, these developments are hardly noteworthy.

The total industrial output of all of Japan combined is still less than that of a single industrial park in Austria. If we consider output value, it might not even match that of a large corporation.

The “elite navy” trained by the Japanese government may not even be on par with Austria’s fleet stationed in its colonies. A single battleship could easily defeat them.

As for the so-called modern army, it consists of only a few tens of thousands of troops, with subpar equipment. Coupled with inherent disdain, many people might view Japan’s elite forces as inferior to Austria’s reserves.

Under such overwhelming pressure, it is impossible for the Austrian government to take Japan seriously. In the original timeline, Japan was recognized by the world only after the Russo-Japanese War, having climbed to prominence on the shoulders of the Russians.

Franz did not attempt to change everyone’s perceptions. Trying to force his thoughts into others’ minds would be incredibly difficult.

Moreover, Japan’s rise is still far off. Even if it does rise, it poses no threat to Austria. The strength of Austria’s colonies in the South Seas (TN: Nanyang Region/Southeast Asia) is something the Japanese cannot challenge.

However, Franz does admire the current Japanese government’s capabilities. They have managed to develop a semi-colonial and semi-feudal country under such difficult circumstances.

For example, right now, the Japanese government has chosen a good moment to act. They are taking advantage of European countries being distracted by the Ottoman-Persian conflict to create a fait accompli.

If they had waited one to two years, when Britain, France, and Austria reached an agreement on colonial divisions and the international situation began to stabilize, the Japanese government would likely have faced severe repercussions.

Simply put, the Japanese do not yet have the strength to challenge the international order. They can only play on the fringes before European powers establish an international order concerning East Asia.

The “Un'y? Incident” opened Korea’s doors, but the Japanese government did not monopolize the benefits. All major powers could gain from it, so there was naturally little resistance.

It may seem that there are not many gains, but the political significance is considerable. The Japanese government has seized this opportunity to gain a chance for external expansion.

The European powers tacitly accepted the actions of the Japanese government, which means that the international community is willing to accept Japanese colonization of Korea, laying the groundwork for future colonial expansion.

However, with benefits come drawbacks. “Speculation” and “gambling” can easily become addictive, and once one becomes involved in it, it is hard to break free.

Winning a gamble can indeed yield substantial rewards, but luck eventually runs out. One loss, and all could be lost.

This is the plight of small nations. If they do not take risks, they will never have the opportunity to rise. Yet once they sit at the gambling table, it becomes difficult to walk away.

Victory can cloud judgment. Once one is caught up in it, all they see is success, making it hard to continue viewing issues rationally.

Franz said, “Let’s observe for now! If the Russians turn their attention eastward, then Japan’s opportunity will come. Compared to the Far Eastern Empire, the British prefer to support such small players.”

Whether or not the Russians will look eastward is a question no one can answer. Everything depends on the outcome of the next Russo-Prussian War.

Currently, France and Austria are sharing hegemony on the European continent. If the Russian government suffers a pyrrhic victory, then withdrawing from continental struggles will become inevitable, and looking eastward will be one option.

If the Russian government suffers a disastrous defeat, then everything will be over. A defeated Russian Empire will inevitably be dismembered. Even self-preservation will be a challenge, let alone continuing expansion.

From Austria’s perspective, it would naturally hope for a draw between the two countries or for one side to achieve a narrow victory. Eliminating two potential competitors at once would be ideal.