Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 622 - 195: Capital Operation

Paris, within a luxurious club not open to the public, several titans of the French financial world gathered together.

A kindly-looking old man asked with a chuckle, "I heard that little Nino ran into some trouble, how is he now, has he completed the task?"

If you weren’t familiar with him, you’d never know that this benign-looking elder was the biggest bloodsucker in the French financial sector.

The most frightening thing was that, no matter the circumstance, he always had a chuckling demeanor, even when committing murder.

"Enough, Old Duke, save that look, we’re all old acquaintances here, who doesn’t know whom? Acting every day, aren’t you tired? We’re all fed up watching."

The comment came from Dumas, who often clashed with him due to conflicting interests.

Conflict aside, it didn’t stop everyone from collaborating to make money. For the sake of the Panama Canal project, they were all sitting together again.

To prevent the escalation of conflict, Bales, the host of this meeting, decisively steered the conversation back to business, "Gentlemen, the matter at hand is more pressing. Let’s discuss the canal project first."

"We all understand the Suez Canal; originally thought to be a loss-maker, the project recouped its entire investment in less than seven years after opening.

Now, it provides a handsome return to investors every year, and the revenue continues to grow with the expansion of overseas trade. Unless something unexpected occurs, this revenue is expected to last for centuries."

Of course, that’s an exception. The Mediterranean’s unique geography is not found just anywhere, and replicating the success of the Suez Canal is nearly impossible.

"The Panama Canal should be the closest thing to the Suez Canal. Once opened, it will shorten the distance between the East and West Pacific significantly, and the profits are readily imaginable."

Old Duke shook his head, "It’s not that simple. The Panama Canal is different from the Suez Canal, politically, we lack support.

The Austrians do not wish to see the canal opened, the British, too, and even the Paris Government might not support the opening of the Panama Canal.

You should understand why. The major beneficiaries of the Suez Canal were the Mediterranean countries, with both France and Austria profiting, which is why they pushed the project forward despite British pressure for strategic reasons.

But what about the Panama Canal? The primary beneficiary is the United States of America, followed by the Republic of Colombia, and other American countries will gain to some extent.

But the profits for England, France, and Austria are too minimal; aside from the canal itself, France has almost no gain.

The area of Austria in Central America is not large, and their transport needs can be met with railways; without this demand, they would have taken matters into their own hands and dug the canal themselves, just as a canal could be cut through the Nicaragua region.

And as for British-Canada, with its vast lands and scarce population, there simply aren’t enough goods to transport.

In the eyes of politicians, starting such a project, which indiscriminately benefits others, might not be worth it.

As for the profits of the canal, I’m sorry, but I don’t believe the Panama Canal can catch up to the Suez Canal.

Looking at the economy of America, the number of ships passing through annually might not even match the number of ships from just one of our companies that pass through the Suez Canal.

If the economies of the American countries develop later on, perhaps it could turn a profit. But if we go by the current situation, this project is almost guaranteed to be a loss."

This was the reality. There were indeed hidden interests behind the Panama Canal, but these were not what governments could get their hands on.

Compared to the high investment, merely collecting tolls for passage – the canal, in this era, would indeed be a tremendous loss; otherwise, in the original timeline, it would not have waited until before World War I to open.

Without government involvement and facing sabotage from other countries, it would be odd if the Panama Canal managed to open smoothly.

Bales smiled slightly, "Whether the Panama Canal makes money or can be opened, what does it have to do with us?

As long as the outside world believes this project has great potential, just like the current Suez Canal – that it can make a fortune – that’s enough.

I’ve made a preliminary estimate. If this project gets under way, it could move ten to twenty billion francs in capital. And if we include peripheral gains, that figure can be even higher.

We just need to bite off a piece of the action – whether the canal plan succeeds or fails, we’ll leave it to God to decide."

Everyone began calculating how much they could profit. There was no doubt that this was a colossal swindle, but this was also the most basic operation of capital. If they didn’t conjure a dream, how would investors be willing to fall into the trap?

For financial capital, the success or failure of a project was never a concern. As long as they could get it listed, they could reap a substantial return; long-term management was never a problem they needed to consider.

Old Duke nodded in agreement, "You make a good point; we are not God, how could we know if the Panama Canal project will be a success?

I think it’s better to secure the canal rights as soon as possible, then proceed to get it listed."

If it’s possible, it would be best to bring Anglo-Austrian capital into this. Only by enlarging the cake, can we secure the most delicious slice for ourselves.

Especially on the Austrian side, someone must lobby the Vienna Government, at the very least to delay their intervention."

Bales, "This is precisely why I’ve summoned everyone here. For a project of this magnitude, there are too many relationships that need to be coordinated. Only through sincere cooperation can we achieve success."

Clearly, this was not as simple as it appeared on the surface; just another Panama Canal project, truly not warranting such a conglomerate of French financial tycoons.

Once the bubble has been inflated, it’s no longer just about the canal project. It will involve maritime transport, manufacturing, banking...

Perhaps when the project kicks off, it will herald a new bull market; and when the project collapses, the stock market crash will erupt.

...

There are indeed many shrewd individuals, and Morgan in New York, with his keen financial market acumen, swiftly noticed that something was amiss.

The building of the Panama Canal simply does not require the United States of America’s involvement; even if it did, besides providing money, there’s nothing they could do.

With the Federal government beset with internal conflicts and weak, it simply does not have the capacity to marshal the true strength of the nation. Moreover, with the United States lurking with rapacious intent, they dare not make any rash move.

Were it to truly come to a head with Austria, the Federal government would be left with nothing but protests and would be powerless to do anything else. Without government intervention, what can these consortia do? Organize mercenaries to defend the Panama area?

Morgan wasn’t underestimating himself, the consortium’s power was indeed significant, but it depended on the context. If it were to organize mercenaries to frontally confront a major power, it was likely that they would die a very miserable death.

It wasn’t just the United States; Spain wasn’t faring much better either. It appeared that Spain held considerable sway in the Caribbean Sea, but in reality, its colonies in the area had long been the object of the United States’ covetous gaze.

The lack of action on their part was partly due to fear of the power of England, France, and Austria, worried about becoming the target of animosity from the European nations; on the other hand, it was due to mutual restraint with the United States, where making a rash move would likely give the enemy an opportunity to exploit.

Even if the Panama Canal were a lucrative opportunity, the Spaniards could not afford to offend Austria at this time and draw significant trouble upon themselves.

Let’s not even talk about the Southeast Asian region’s Philippines lying under Austria’s watchful eye. The Spaniards’ ability to hold onto this territory relies on the good diplomatic relations between the two, not so-called military power.

Since both potential allies are unreliable, the French’s intention to involve them makes the issue quite apparent.

Having surmised the truth, it even reinforced Morgan’s resolve to collaborate with the French. Money that comes knocking at one’s door should not be turned away; as for who would eventually scheme against whom, that would be a matter of tactics.

It should be known that the Morgan consortium had reached its current scale precisely by exploiting the British during their misfortune; if they could scheme against the British, then certainly, scheming against the French naturally had no pressure.

...

At the Vienna Palace, Franz hesitated as he examined the intelligence in his hands, unsure if he should cooperate with these consortia.

Looking strictly from a profit standpoint, he saw no reason to refuse. The benefits promised by the French were quite substantial.

Yet to proceed would be to break his bottom line. While the royal consortium also engaged in financial operations, it had never played any such monumental scams.

After much hesitation, Franz reached a decision, "Tell those below that we can cooperate with the French, but the Panama Canal cannot be listed in Austria. They can decide on their own whether to participate beyond that point."

Money laid before our door should not be ignored; as long as we do not allow the Panama Canal Company to be listed in Austria, even if there’s an impact, the consequences will not be too severe.

If investors rush to buy stocks, then they deserve to be fleeced.

The Austrian Securities Regulatory Commission is quite strict, and a company with not a single feather to its name simply cannot pass the listing review unless it’s backed by the government.

Franz did not believe that the Vienna Government would vouch for the Panama Canal. The higher-ups in the government are acutely aware that unless Austria changes its national policy, this project stands no chance of success.

The French intention to draw the Austrian consortium into the fray was primarily to keep Vienna from causing trouble; listing in Austria was never really in their plans.

The reason is straightforward. According to the newest securities regulations set by the Vienna Government: a company listed in Austria must meet strict performance requirements, which, unless it is a government-approved project, must be continuously profitable for three years, exceeding 100,000 Divine Shield.

No matter how the Panama Canal project is maneuvered, capitalists couldn’t possibly produce financial statements of continuous three-years profits prior to the canal’s navigation.

Of course, the benefits are not so easily attained. There are definitely additional conditions; wanting to make money without effort is impossible. What exactly needs to be done requires further negotiations to determine, and that no longer concerns Franz.

Input and yield are proportional; as this plan was orchestrated by the French, they naturally stand to reap the major share. Other participants will divide the spoils according to their contributions.

This is only a preliminary distribution intention; how much profit can actually be secured, in reality, it still comes down to tactics. Capital is always bloodstained, and competition is omnipresent.