Rebound: A 2nd Chance

Chapter 151 - The Numbers

Kelly awkwardly chuckled "Come on Logan. We all know that you can't really use middle school basketball to tell how good a player will be in the future.

We're just talking about this because it's been a while since anyone has been able to make any kind of noise at that level."

Donovan Mitchell nodded his head in agreement "Yeah man. We're just having some fun watching a talented kid.

No one is talking about his draft rank or anything. We all know that the kid is still just a kid and that he has a long way to go in terms of his basketball journey.

It's just fun to talk about because we haven't seen anyone dominate at that level the way that he is.

This kid managed to turn the worst team in his county into the best team in the county and now they are two games in to the state tournament.

You can't tell me that he ain't got a good story. Jason and his team have gone through so much to be where they're at right now.

From being the underdog to becoming county champions. And now they lost their starting Center? Their story just has so many things that make you want to root for them."

Logan put his hands up "I get it, I get it. Everyone loves an underdog story. We all like to cheer for the dark horse.

And I have to admit that Jason and his team have given sports shows a lot of material to talk about over the past few days.

But let's not pretend like this kid is the second coming of LeBron James or something. He's not doing anything out of this world.

He's not dunking over people and putting them on posters, he's not swatting shots out of the court, he's doing the things that he knows how to do.

I feel like everyone is turning into his fan because they all see some part of themselves in Jason.

He's not this kid with crazy athleticism and he's not super huge. He's a little tricky with the ball and he knows how to shoot.

The same thing happened with Stephen Curry all those years ago. It was easier for people to relate to him because he was a small guy that had some skills unlike LeBron who was this physical freak of nature.

I wasn't really going to say much but since we're talking about this for fun then I suppose I can put in my own two cents."

He then reached out to his bag that was under the table and pulled out a few sheets of paper.

"Ever since Jason made that one play where he got the block to erase any possible comeback there has been this growing narrative that he is quote on quote "Clutch".

This narrative has gotten even stronger after his two games in the state tournament where he has made plays late in the game in order to push his team ahead.

But if you take a look at the actual numbers you would be surprised to see that he isn't as "Clutch" as people like to make him out to be.

For the season Jason averaged 26.4 Pts, 4 Rebs, 8.8 Ast, 3.2 Stl, and 1.4 Blk on fairly good efficiency. He shot 55 percent from the field and 43 percent from three. 

In the state tournament his points per game average has gone up to 36 points but his efficiency has gone way down.

For the two games he's played so far he's shot 47 from the field and 36 percent from three. Not only that, one of the best parts of his game was his defense but even that has taken a hit.

His steals are down to 2.1 a game and his one block so far was the one that helped them to win the game.

So how can a kid be considered clutch when his stats have shown a dramatic decline now that he's playing on a big stage like the state tournament?

Here's something that hurts his "Clutch" credibility. According to the numbers Jason's already diminished effectiveness takes an even bigger hit once he's in the fourth quarter.

His field goal percentage drops to 43 percent from the field and 33 percent from three. These numbers don't look very clutch to me."

Donovan Mitchell put his hand up "Come on Logan. You know that the game is more than just numbers.

Numbers and analytics are all good and I think that they do have a place in the game. But I still like to go by the old fashioned eye test.

And what the eye test tells me is that whenever you need a play to win a game Jason is there to deliver."

Kelly nodded her head in agreement "Numbers only tell you a part of the story. You need to look at the context of where the numbers came from.

The drop in his shooting percentages from before and after the start of the state tournament can be explained by the loss of their starting Center.

Kyle was Jason's most effective weapon on offense. The pick and roll with Jason and Kyle was the most used action by Jefferson's offense.

So losing his best pick and roll partner was sure to hurt his own offense. And Kyle's absence also affects the rest of the team.

Jefferson was already playing with a small roster but after losing their starting Center that just made their rotations even shorter.

I think the reason why Jason's percentages take such a sharp dive in the fourth quarter is because the kid is literally playing every minute of the game.

It's only natural that his shooting takes a hit when he's tired. It would be a miracle if he wasn't gassed by the time the fourth quarter came around considering how much he has to do for his team."

Logan took a sip from the mug in front of him before responding "Well you guys gave your opinion and I was just tossing in my own two cents.

I wasn't trying to trash the kid or anything. I was just giving out the numbers. Like I said, middle school is too early to try and judge whether or not these kids will be anything special or if they can even get to the pros.

But here's another interesting fact that I thought that you two as well as the rest of the people watching would be interested in.

Both of the teams that Jason and his team have beaten were from some of the smallest counties in the state.

These are counties with less than a quarter of the population that Riverside has. Small population means small talent pool.

Which means that these teams aren't exactly powerhouses in the middle school basketball world."

Donovan Mitchel shook his head "Hey, don't do that man. Don't try to downplay what Jason and his team been doing.

It ain't his fault or his team's fault that they been playing against teams from smaller counties.

In sports you play against the team in front of you. You sound like one of those people that say "Oh you gotta put an asterisk next to that cause they played a hurt team." They can't control who they play against."

Logan waved his hands in denial "Like I said before I am not trashing the kid or trying to minimize what he and his team have done.

I was just trying to be like Kelly and give you guys some more context to everything that we were talking about.

It was amazing that Jefferson managed to win two games in the state tournament with only 7 players on their roster.

But they did get lucky considering that they played two teams from really small counties in a row.

But this next game against High Bridge Middle School from Sacramento county is going to be their first game against some actual competition. 

They get a few days to rest before they play against High Bridge Middle School and if they win that makes them one of the top four teams in the state.

The break that they would get before the next portion of the tournament starts is just enough to where their starting Center might just be healed up enough from his sprained ankle that he could play."